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Impact answers “What changed?” — After

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Impact is retrospective.

It can only be seen once:

• time has passed

• systems have reacted

• unintended effects have surfaced

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Real impact is rarely clean, linear, or fully attributable.
By the time you can name it honestly, the work has already happened.

Impact is something you recognise, not something you command.

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Theory of Change answers “Why should this work?” — Before

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A Theory of Change (ToC) is a hypothesis, not a truth.

 

At its best, it:

• makes assumptions explicit

• surfaces causal beliefs

• gives a shared language for learning

 

At its worst, it:

• pretends certainty where there is none

• locks organisations into brittle logic

• turns learning into compliance

 

ToCs fail not because people are stupid —
but because complex systems do not behave politely.

 

In many organisations :

• Desire = “Something feels wrong here.”

• Curiosity = “What if we tried…?”

• Experiment = “Let’s see what happens.”

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But ToC gets used to shut this down:

“We can’t act until we can explain impact.”

 

So movement waits.
Learning stalls.
Life gets replaced by logic.

This is purpose-first thinking in a spreadsheet.

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What “Fail on Purpose” adds to ToC

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Desire → Action → Failure → Learning → Pattern → Impact → Theory of Change

 

Not:

Theory of Change → Action → Prove Impact

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Why?

Because theories should emerge from contact with reality, not precede it.

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Safe failure before scaled harm

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0% chance tasks and small experiments:

• reduce ego attachment

• surface false assumptions early

• prevent overconfidence

 

Traditional ToC assumes:

“If we plan well enough, we can avoid failure.”

 

Fail on Purpose says:

“Failure is inevitable — so design it safely.”

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Learning before legitimacy

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Many organisations use ToC to:

• satisfy donors

• justify funding

• signal seriousness

 

But learning happens before legitimacy, not after.

 

A Theory of Change should be:

• a living document

• rewritten often

• embarrassed by reality

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If it can’t be wrong, it isn’t useful.

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Impact without obsession

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Impact obsession creates the same pressure loop as KPIs:

• over-claiming

• under-reporting failure

• gaming metrics

• mistaking motion for meaning

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Impact should be treated like:

• a trail marker, not a finish line

• information, not identity

• feedback, not validation

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When impact becomes identity, organisations stop telling the truth.

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The quiet truth

• Desire gets organisations moving.

• Failure teaches them what not to do.

• Learning sharpens the way.

• Impact appears unevenly, late, and imperfectly.

• Theory of Change should be rewritten to match reality — not protect egos.

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Impact is discovered.
Theory of Change is provisional.
Desire and movement come first.